Lake Ice hazard Research and Development

NextGen has conducted R&D on lake ice hazards using radar satellites and drones starting in 2018. This page provides background and context to our research work and new research as it unfolds. Our research on lake ice is perpetual and feeds into new versions of our app, Ice Time. This page will also capture some of the results of our work in a new multi-year project with the Canadian Space Agency where we classify radar images of lake ice using Artificial Intelligence.

If you are looking for the app “Ice Time” click here.

March 31, 2019 - NextGen completed a comprehensive study funded by the Canadian Space Agency (CSA). Our novel project, considered a success by the CSA, studied 84 lakes over three winters which spurred the development of the world’s first RADAR satellite based Lake Ice Hazard Advisory Service.

This research and development was undertaken with the financial support of the Canadian Space Agency.

Canada has more than 32,000 lakes. A warming climate creates new risks that drives a need to better understand and monitor lake ice.

Ridges pose as barriers to travel and are collision hazards in winter and pose an early immersion risk in spring

Ridges on large lakes exceed 50 km in length and often are more than 2 m high. NextGen can detect and map ridges from space.

Pressure ridges are ice deformations that include troughs on either side. The ridge and troughs are relatively weak ice and decay early to form a lead.

Pressure ridge after melt onset during the diurnal melt period

Ridges flood snow with lake water during uplift - winter period.

Pressure ridge collapse of sails- immersion hazard. After overnight freezing and new snow these areas appear to be good crossing sites, but are not.

Ridge and troughs flooded with lake water due to uplift

Trough deformation adjacent to ridge and uplift as ice expands. Water-filled troughs freeze with thin ice at night.

April 5, 2018 - open water along ridge axis. Fixed wing drone data collected during Intermittent Melt Period.

April 11, 2018 - Ice sheet moves 1.6 m and closes crack along ridge. Fixed wing drone data collected during Diurnal Melt Period.

April 22, 2018 - active collapse and decay stage - fixed wing drone data collected during Diurnal Melt Period.

April 28, 2018 - ridge mostly collapsed and sails floating. Fixed wing drone data collected during Accelerated Melt Period.

May 5, 2018 - Ridge sails afloat along ridge axis after collapse and lead size increases. Accelerated Melt Period 2 days before break-up.

Rubble ice accumulates during freeze up - paths through or around rubble fields can be extracted from RADAR data.

"Push ice" or "shove ice" encroaches on shorelines and can result in property damage. NextGen can detect this change from space.

Lake Ice Change and Climate Resiliency

Frozen lakes are common features of our landscape and are an important cultural heritage. It is unfortunate that most people must learn lake ice safety on their own, step by step, by trial and error. That is the inherent nature of risk. A study published recently in Nature Climate Change indicates an extensive loss of lake ice will occur within the next generation. This is not the distant future and can challenge even the experienced as we all head into a new ice regime. Such climate change could have profound effects on many remote communities and the recreational activities of an increasing number of lake ice users as our populations grow. Inter-annual climate variation is superimposed on this warming trend. This means the risks we understand today are likely to increase as the ice conditions that we have become accustomed to change. A new approach is merited to help ease into a warming climate.

The pressure ridge in the distance will start to collapse and expose open water long before the competency of the horizontal ice is compromised. A map of ridges derived from satellite aids winter navigation and helps to avoid collisions and immersion in the ridge axis in the spring.

Rubble ice fields are seldom navigable and can be large. Maps of rubble fields improve routing access for lake ice travel by citizens and first responders.

Initial signs of vertical draining indicating the structure of the ice is changing.

An ice core taken on the southern basin of Lake Winnipeg just a few days after melt onset. Vertical channels are evident in the core when back-lit from the sun, indicating changes in the structure of the ice started.

Ice Roads traverse many lakes which can benefit from ice hazard monitoring.

Offshore zones often freeze last. Of nearly 400 snowmobile related deaths over a 20 year period, 42% fell through thin ice. Source: Canadian Red Cross.

Offshore zones often freeze last and knowledge of ice thickness nearshore can be misleading. Almost 400 snowmobile related deaths over a 20 year period were tracked by the Canadian Red Cross. About 46% of deaths resulted due to driving into open water.

The Canadian Red Cross found that deaths during snowmobiling on ice were largely preventable. About 59% of these occurred on lakes.

Planning for and adapting to Change

The hazards of travel on floating lake ice remain poorly understood. The risk of collision with rough ice or immersion of property and people can be reduced with education, planning, identification, and monitoring of specific risk factors. Our service educates by leveraging scientific experience learned on the ice, including detailed drone imagery which clearly shows the changes in risk factors that people seldom observe. We identify and monitor hazards to show where they are and how they can change during the ice cover period; this improves the situational awareness of citizens and first responders using lake ice. For businesses and governments, the service is a climate change adaptation tool that grows the competency of your staff and partners while improving climate resiliency of communities over time.

Synthetic Aperture RADAR Imaging

Our Lake Ice Hazard mapping application uses Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite imagery to map ice hazards. The hazard maps can include formation of new ice, tracking the break-up and repeated movements of new ice to create areas of open water (i.e. creation of persistent variable ice thickness), and identification of pressure ridges, rubble ice, shore/push ice, leads, and cracks. Also, rapid snow melt on the ice “re-floods” the ice which can be detected using radar images. Re-floods immobilize vehicles which incurs damage or loss of vehicles when they freeze into the ice. NextGen publishes climate information with each map. This helps users of our app to better understand the state of the ice, the recent climate effects, and the types of changes that can be expected.

The maturation of satellite imaging and internet technologies means we can detect properties of lake ice from space at night and through clouds during the day. The hazard maps can be accessed in near real-time using internet technology and cellular phones.

NextGen continues to develop and apply the new state of science and technology. We have applied these new advances in understanding to challenging ice conditions, including those found at the scale of the southern basin of Lake Winnipeg for the 2018/2019 ice cover period, for example.

Please see our April 2019 Lake Ice Newsletter request form below and Contact Us for more information.